Stuart Lipscombe v Richard Davies (Sat 20 Jan 2018)

Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,743, level confidence: 59%.
Starting level for Richard Davies: 3,207, level confidence: 64%.
Stuart Lipscombe to win as he is currently playing 17% better than Richard Davies.

Stuart Lipscombe won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Lipscombe actually played at a level of 4,583 and Richard Davies at a level of 2,619. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 11%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to +11% and Richard Davies changes to -10.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes +4.4% and for Richard Davies becomes -4.3%.

Given Stuart Lipscombe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 85% has been applied to his level change.

Given Richard Davies's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 70% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is +1% and for Richard Davies is -1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 77%, Richard Davies: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 63%, Richard Davies: 66%.

Final level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,779, level confidence: 63%.
Final level for Richard Davies: 3,176, level confidence: 66%.