Stuart Lipscombe v Grant Bryant (Sat 20 Jan 2018)
Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Stuart Lipscombe:
3,334, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for
Grant Bryant:
3,423, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Grant Bryant to win as he is currently playing
3% better than Stuart Lipscombe.
Stuart Lipscombe won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Stuart Lipscombe has played significantly better in this match than his level suggests and this is backed up by his last three results so use
accelerated level adjustment to get his level right more quickly. As a result, his
pre-match level has been increased to
3698. The remaining calculations use this as his level coming in to this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Stuart Lipscombe actually played at a level of
4,707 and Grant Bryant at a level of
2,689. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 27% to match this result.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 14%.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to +14% and Grant Bryant changes to -11%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes +5.3% and for Grant Bryant becomes -4.5%.
Given Stuart Lipscombe's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 83% has been applied to his level change.
Given Grant Bryant's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 76% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 40% for 'Club match' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is +1.2% and for Grant Bryant is -1%.
Including the accelerated level adjustment, the
total adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is +12%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 79%, Grant Bryant: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 59%, Grant Bryant: 66%.
Final level for Stuart Lipscombe:
3,741, level confidence: 59%.
Final level for Grant Bryant:
3,389, level confidence: 66%.