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David Culshaw v Alex Preston (Tue 20 Mar 2018)

Match won by David Culshaw. Result: 11-4,14-16,12-10,6-11,11-3.

Starting level for David Culshaw: 4,324, level confidence: 56%.
Starting level for Alex Preston: 6,632, level confidence: 65%.
Alex Preston to win as he is currently playing 53% better than David Culshaw.

David Culshaw won 60% of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that David Culshaw played 13% better than Alex Preston in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like David Culshaw actually played at a level of 5,697 and Alex Preston at a level of 5,034. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 32% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for David Culshaw changes to +25% and Alex Preston changes to -21%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for David Culshaw becomes +8% and for Alex Preston becomes -6.2%.

Given Alex Preston's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 6.5% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for David Culshaw is +6% and for Alex Preston is -4.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. David Culshaw: 75%, Alex Preston: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. David Culshaw: 57%, Alex Preston: 61%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for David Culshaw: 4,595, level confidence: 57%.
Final level for Alex Preston: 6,376, level confidence: 61%.