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Stuart Lipscombe v David Nairn (Mon 12 Mar 2018)

Match won by Stuart Lipscombe. Result: 13-15,15-1,15-2,15-3.

Starting level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,830, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for David Nairn: 1,724, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Stuart Lipscombe to win as he is currently playing 122% better than David Nairn.

Stuart Lipscombe won 75% of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 176% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Stuart Lipscombe played 75% better than David Nairn in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Stuart Lipscombe was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,641 and 3,830 without affecting his level.

In this case, Stuart Lipscombe played at level 3,129 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Stuart Lipscombe would normally have been playing at level 3,247 (based on typical behaviour), David Nairn played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe changes to 0% and David Nairn changes to +2.5%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe becomes 0% and for David Nairn becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Suffolk Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Stuart Lipscombe is 0% and for David Nairn is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Stuart Lipscombe: 85%, David Nairn: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Stuart Lipscombe: 75%, David Nairn: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Stuart Lipscombe: 3,824, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for David Nairn: 1,748, level confidence: 75%.