Paul Boyle v Keith Timms (Mon 12 Mar 2018)
Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 9-11,12-10,6-11,7-11.
Starting level for
Paul Boyle:
7,634, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Keith Timms:
9,204, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing
21% better than Paul Boyle.
Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 26% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played
25% better than Paul Boyle in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Keith Timms actually played at a level of
9,390 and Paul Boyle at a level of
7,483. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to +1.8% and Paul Boyle changes to -1.8%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes +0.9% and for Paul Boyle becomes -1%.
Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 15% has been applied to his level change.
Given Paul Boyle's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10% has been applied to his level change.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Middlesex Seniors League' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is +0.6% and for Paul Boyle is -0.7%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 89%, Paul Boyle: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 88%, Paul Boyle: 86%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Paul Boyle:
7,603, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Keith Timms:
9,281, level confidence: 88%.