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Jordan Hardwick v Marcus Hayes (Mon 05 Mar 2018)

Match won by Marcus Hayes. Result: 6-11,7-11,2-11.

Starting level for Jordan Hardwick: 7,749, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Starting level for Marcus Hayes: 8,157, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Marcus Hayes to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Jordan Hardwick.

Marcus Hayes won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marcus Hayes played 120% better than Jordan Hardwick in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marcus Hayes actually played at a level of 11,792 and Jordan Hardwick at a level of 5,360. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 45% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes changes to +43% and Jordan Hardwick changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marcus Hayes becomes +10.7% and for Jordan Hardwick becomes -10.2%.

Given Marcus Hayes's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 12% has been applied to his level change.

Given Jordan Hardwick's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 10.4% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Warwickshire Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Marcus Hayes is +7.2% and for Jordan Hardwick is -6.7%.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jordan Hardwick is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marcus Hayes: 84%, Jordan Hardwick: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marcus Hayes: 58%, Jordan Hardwick: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jordan Hardwick: 7,369, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Marcus Hayes: 8,731, level confidence: 58%.