Jahangir Hussain v David Crane (Wed 21 Feb 2018)
Match won by Jahangir Hussain. Result: 3-0.
Starting level for
Jahangir Hussain:
4,469, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for
David Crane:
2,010, level confidence: 63%.
Jahangir Hussain to win as he is currently playing
122% better than David Crane.
Jahangir Hussain won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Jahangir Hussain was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 2,955 and 4,469 without affecting his level.
In this case, Jahangir Hussain played at level 3,650 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Jahangir Hussain would normally have been playing at level 3,788 (based on typical behaviour), David Crane played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 3.8%.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 2.5% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 1.4%.
As this result doesn't have points scores, the difference in levels is significant and the match was a straight games win, leave the levels unchanged. Provide points scores if you can!
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jahangir Hussain: 87%, David Crane: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jahangir Hussain: 77%, David Crane: 71%.
A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Jahangir Hussain:
4,480, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for David Crane:
2,015, level confidence: 71%.