Marc Aldridge v Jahangir Hussain (Thu 22 Feb 2018)
Match won by Marc Aldridge. Result: 4-15,15-6,15-11,17-15.
Starting level for
Marc Aldridge:
4,931, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Jahangir Hussain:
4,477, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Marc Aldridge to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Jahangir Hussain.
Marc Aldridge won 75% of the games and 52% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Marc Aldridge played
20% better than Jahangir Hussain in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Marc Aldridge actually played at a level of
5,137 and Jahangir Hussain at a level of
4,297. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 4.2% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Marc Aldridge changes to +4% and Jahangir Hussain changes to -3.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Marc Aldridge becomes +2% and for Jahangir Hussain becomes -2%.
Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Marc Aldridge is +1.5% and for Jahangir Hussain is -1.5%.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Marc Aldridge: 83%, Jahangir Hussain: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Marc Aldridge: 80%, Jahangir Hussain: 84%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Marc Aldridge:
4,999, level confidence: 80%.
Final level for Jahangir Hussain:
4,404, level confidence: 84%.