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Jake Byrne v Keith Timms (Thu 01 Feb 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 4-11,11-6,7-11,4-11.

Starting level for Jake Byrne: 4,140, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Starting level for Keith Timms: 8,743, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 111% better than Jake Byrne.

Keith Timms won 75% of the games and 60% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 50% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 33% better than Jake Byrne in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Keith Timms was taking it easy by anything up to 14%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 6,254 and 8,743 without affecting his level.

As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 5,874, his level reduction is 6.5% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 7,533 (based on typical behaviour), Jake Byrne played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.4% and 11% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -4.2% and Jake Byrne changes to +11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -1.9% and for Jake Byrne becomes +4.3%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is -1.2% and for Jake Byrne is +3.2%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 89%, Jake Byrne: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 71%, Jake Byrne: 70%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jake Byrne: 4,268, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Keith Timms: 8,624, level confidence: 71%.