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Barrie McLelland v Mick Birch (Tue 06 Feb 2018)

Match won by Barrie McLelland. Result: 9-5,6-9,9-2,9-4.

Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,815, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Mick Birch: 1,265, level confidence: 70%. Set manually.
Barrie McLelland to win as he is currently playing 43% better than Mick Birch.

Barrie McLelland won 75% of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 29% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barrie McLelland played 26% better than Mick Birch in this match.

As Barrie McLelland has played below his allowed range at 1,627, his level reduction is 1.8% before damping. On the assumption that Barrie McLelland would normally have been playing at level 1,743 (based on typical behaviour), Mick Birch played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 4.4%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 1.5% and 3.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland changes to -1.5% and Mick Birch changes to +3.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland becomes -1.2% and for Mick Birch becomes +3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Barrie McLelland is -0.9% and for Mick Birch is +2.3%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barrie McLelland: 84%, Mick Birch: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barrie McLelland: 79%, Mick Birch: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,796, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Mick Birch: 1,292, level confidence: 79%.