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Jahangir Hussain v Lee Collier (Thu 01 Feb 2018)

Match won by Jahangir Hussain. Result: 3-0.

Starting level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,526, level confidence: 82%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lee Collier: 3,652, level confidence: 64%.
Jahangir Hussain to win as he is currently playing 24% better than Lee Collier.

Jahangir Hussain won all of the games. There are no points scores.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This result only has game scores. Less accurate but we can still work with it.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jahangir Hussain actually played at a level of 5,378 and Lee Collier at a level of 3,073. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 19% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Without points scores, the adjustment has been reduced to 9.3%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain changes to +7.3% and Lee Collier changes to -9.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain becomes +3.1% and for Lee Collier becomes -3.9%.

Given Jahangir Hussain's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 43% has been applied to his level change.

Given Lee Collier's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 29% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 50% for 'Surrey Colets Internal League' so the adjustment for Jahangir Hussain is +1.1% and for Lee Collier is -1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jahangir Hussain: 90%, Lee Collier: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jahangir Hussain: 76%, Lee Collier: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Jahangir Hussain: 4,572, level confidence: 76%.
Final level for Lee Collier: 3,597, level confidence: 67%.