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Gary Goddard v Barrie McLelland (Wed 31 Jan 2018)

Match won by Barrie McLelland. Result: 7-9,3-9,3-9.

Starting level for Gary Goddard: 1,143, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for Barrie McLelland: 1,868, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Barrie McLelland to win as he is currently playing 63% better than Gary Goddard.

Barrie McLelland won all of the games and 68% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 48% (english scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Barrie McLelland played 50% better than Gary Goddard in this match.

In this case, Barrie McLelland played at level 1,730 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Barrie McLelland would normally have been playing at level 1,743 (based on typical behaviour), Gary Goddard played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 0.7%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 0.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland changes to 0% and Gary Goddard changes to +0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Barrie McLelland becomes 0% and for Gary Goddard becomes +0.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Leicestershire Mens League 2017/18' so the adjustment for Barrie McLelland is 0% and for Gary Goddard is +0.4%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Barrie McLelland: 90%, Gary Goddard: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Barrie McLelland: 86%, Gary Goddard: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gary Goddard: 1,146, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Barrie McLelland: 1,865, level confidence: 86%.