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Keith Timms v Charles Yerrell (Thu 18 Jan 2018)

Match won by Keith Timms. Result: 11-7,6-11,11-9,10-12,11-9.

Starting level for Keith Timms: 8,883, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Starting level for Charles Yerrell: 7,246, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Keith Timms to win as he is currently playing 23% better than Charles Yerrell.

Keith Timms won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Keith Timms played 8% better than Charles Yerrell in this match.

As Keith Timms has played below his allowed range at 8,213, his level reduction is 4.9% before damping. On the assumption that Keith Timms would normally have been playing at level 8,764 (based on typical behaviour), Charles Yerrell played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 5.8%.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Keith Timms changes to -4% and Charles Yerrell changes to +5.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Keith Timms becomes -1.8% and for Charles Yerrell becomes +2.2%.

Given Keith Timms's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 14% has been applied to his level change.

Given Charles Yerrell's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 8.7% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Hertfordshire League 2017/2018' so the adjustment for Keith Timms is -1.2% and for Charles Yerrell is +1.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Keith Timms: 89%, Charles Yerrell: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Keith Timms: 83%, Charles Yerrell: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Keith Timms: 8,766, level confidence: 83%.
Final level for Charles Yerrell: 7,345, level confidence: 79%.