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George Parker v Andy Cockerill (Wed 12 Feb 2020)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-6,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for George Parker: 38,945, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for Andy Cockerill: 5,915, level confidence: 68%.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 558% better than Andy Cockerill.

George Parker won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 65% better than Andy Cockerill in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that George Parker was taking it easy by anything up to 50%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 8,303 and 38,945 without affecting his level.

In this case, George Parker played at level 13,829 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that George Parker would normally have been playing at level 19,594 (based on typical behaviour), Andy Cockerill played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 42%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to 0% and Andy Cockerill changes to +15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes 0% and for Andy Cockerill becomes +4.8%.

Given Andy Cockerill's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 3.8% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for George Parker is 0% and for Andy Cockerill is +3.5%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 91%, Andy Cockerill: 83%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 46%, Andy Cockerill: 41%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 39,042, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Andy Cockerill: 6,134, level confidence: 41%.