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Hollie Naughton v Lily Taylor (Thu 06 Feb 2020)

Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 7-11,11-6,9-11,11-2,11-6.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,917, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Starting level for Lily Taylor: 6,885, level confidence: 61%.
Hollie Naughton to win as she is currently playing 15% better than Lily Taylor.

Hollie Naughton won 60% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 36% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played 17% better than Lily Taylor in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Hollie Naughton actually played at a level of 7,970 and Lily Taylor at a level of 6,839. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 0.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to +0.5% and Lily Taylor changes to -0.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes +0.3% and for Lily Taylor becomes -0.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Racquet Club Pro Series' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 84%, Lily Taylor: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 84%, Lily Taylor: 77%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,849, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Lily Taylor: 6,905, level confidence: 77%.