Abdulla Al-Tamimi v Mohamed Abouelghar (Thu 06 Feb 2020)
Match won by Abdulla Al-Tamimi. Result: 9-11,13-11,11-9,6-11,11-7.
Starting level for
Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
38,768, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Mohamed Abouelghar:
52,092, level confidence: 61%.
Mohamed Abouelghar to win as he is currently playing
34% better than Abdulla Al-Tamimi.
Abdulla Al-Tamimi won 60% of the games and 51% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Abdulla Al-Tamimi played
8% better than Mohamed Abouelghar in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Abdulla Al-Tamimi actually played at a level of
46,704 and Mohamed Abouelghar at a level of
43,240. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 20% to match this result.
Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 17% and 17% respectively.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi changes to +13% and Mohamed Abouelghar changes to -17%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Abdulla Al-Tamimi becomes +3% and for Mohamed Abouelghar becomes -3.6%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 89%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Abdulla Al-Tamimi: 74%, Mohamed Abouelghar: 65%.
A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Abdulla Al-Tamimi:
39,943, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Mohamed Abouelghar:
50,362, level confidence: 65%.