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Benjamin Aubert v Zahed Mohamed (Thu 06 Feb 2020)

Match won by Benjamin Aubert. Result: 11-8,11-5,7-11,11-4.

Starting level for Benjamin Aubert: 32,725, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Zahed Mohamed: 45,586, level confidence: 61%.
Zahed Mohamed to win as he is currently playing 39% better than Benjamin Aubert.

Benjamin Aubert won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 43% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Benjamin Aubert played 31% better than Zahed Mohamed in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Benjamin Aubert actually played at a level of 44,189 and Zahed Mohamed at a level of 33,760. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 35% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 29% and 29% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert changes to +29% and Zahed Mohamed changes to -20%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Benjamin Aubert becomes +5.8% and for Zahed Mohamed becomes -4.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Benjamin Aubert: 68%, Zahed Mohamed: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Benjamin Aubert: 50%, Zahed Mohamed: 58%.

A final adjustment of +1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Benjamin Aubert: 34,535, level confidence: 50%.
Final level for Zahed Mohamed: 44,688, level confidence: 58%.