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George Parker v Todd Harrity (Wed 05 Feb 2020)

Match won by George Parker. Result: 11-8,11-9,11-9.

Starting level for George Parker: 38,141, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Todd Harrity: 37,618, level confidence: 61%.
George Parker to win as he is currently playing 1% better than Todd Harrity.

George Parker won all of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 27% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that George Parker played 36% better than Todd Harrity in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like George Parker actually played at a level of 44,204 and Todd Harrity at a level of 32,458. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for George Parker changes to +12% and Todd Harrity changes to -16%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for George Parker becomes +2.8% and for Todd Harrity becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Motor City Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. George Parker: 90%, Todd Harrity: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. George Parker: 77%, Todd Harrity: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for George Parker: 39,105, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Todd Harrity: 36,505, level confidence: 67%.