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Rex Hedrick v Rhys Gevaux (Sun 10 Nov 2019)

Match won by Rex Hedrick. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-5.

Starting level for Rex Hedrick: 35,155, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rhys Gevaux: 2,472, level confidence: 77%. Set manually.
Rex Hedrick to win as he is currently playing 1322% better than Rhys Gevaux.

Rex Hedrick won all of the games and 63% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 74% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Rex Hedrick played 74% better than Rhys Gevaux in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Rex Hedrick was taking it easy by anything up to 66%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 4,120 and 35,155 without affecting his level.

In this case, Rex Hedrick played at level 7,188 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Rex Hedrick would normally have been playing at level 12,035 (based on typical behaviour), Rhys Gevaux played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 67%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick changes to 0% and Rhys Gevaux changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Rex Hedrick becomes 0% and for Rhys Gevaux becomes +5.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Melton Logic Open 2019' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Rex Hedrick: 87%, Rhys Gevaux: 88%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Rex Hedrick: 30%, Rhys Gevaux: 31%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Rex Hedrick: 35,128, level confidence: 30%.
Final level for Rhys Gevaux: 2,600, level confidence: 31%.