SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Connor Sheen v Joel Makin (Tue 04 Feb 2020)

Match won by Joel Makin. Result: 12-10,3-11,5-11,3-11.

Starting level for Connor Sheen: 19,992, level confidence: 68%.
Starting level for Joel Makin: 54,945, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Joel Makin to win as he is currently playing 175% better than Connor Sheen.

Joel Makin won 75% of the games and 65% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 87% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joel Makin played 45% better than Connor Sheen in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Joel Makin was taking it easy by anything up to 22%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,805 and 54,945 without affecting his level.

As Joel Makin has played below his allowed range at 30,411, his level reduction is 4.6% before damping. On the assumption that Joel Makin would normally have been playing at level 43,092 (based on typical behaviour), Connor Sheen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 22%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.7% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joel Makin changes to -2.4% and Connor Sheen changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joel Makin becomes -0.9% and for Connor Sheen becomes +3.3%.

Given Joel Makin's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 84% has been applied to his level change. Looks like he wasn't taking the match too seriously...

Given Connor Sheen's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 39% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'NW Counties Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Joel Makin is -0.3% and for Connor Sheen is +1.8%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joel Makin: 89%, Connor Sheen: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joel Makin: 65%, Connor Sheen: 60%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Connor Sheen: 20,314, level confidence: 60%.
Final level for Joel Makin: 54,673, level confidence: 65%.