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Joelle King v Hollie Naughton (Fri 31 Jan 2020)

Match won by Joelle King. Result: 11-5,11-7,11-4.

Starting level for Joelle King: 11,019, level confidence: 76%. Set manually.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 7,973, level confidence: 65%.
Joelle King to win as she is currently playing 38% better than Hollie Naughton.

Joelle King won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Joelle King played 106% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Joelle King actually played at a level of 13,461 and Hollie Naughton at a level of 6,527. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 22% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 19% and 19% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Joelle King changes to +16% and Hollie Naughton changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Joelle King becomes +4.4% and for Hollie Naughton becomes -5.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Joelle King: 87%, Hollie Naughton: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Joelle King: 71%, Hollie Naughton: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Joelle King: 11,290, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,697, level confidence: 66%.