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Hollie Naughton v Ali Loke (Thu 30 Jan 2020)

Match won by Hollie Naughton. Result: 9-11,9-11,12-10,11-5,11-8.

Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 8,214, level confidence: 64%.
Starting level for Ali Loke: 4,895, level confidence: 49%.
Hollie Naughton to win as she is currently playing 68% better than Ali Loke.

Hollie Naughton won 60% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 16% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Hollie Naughton played 11% better than Ali Loke in this match.

As Hollie Naughton has played below her allowed range at 6,202, her level reduction is 14% before damping. On the assumption that Hollie Naughton would normally have been playing at level 7,612 (based on typical behaviour), Ali Loke played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 18%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 10.5% and 14% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton changes to -7.8% and Ali Loke changes to +14%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Hollie Naughton becomes -2.8% and for Ali Loke becomes +4.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Cleveland Classic' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Hollie Naughton: 80%, Ali Loke: 70%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Hollie Naughton: 65%, Ali Loke: 57%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Hollie Naughton: 7,954, level confidence: 65%.
Final level for Ali Loke: 5,132, level confidence: 57%.