Saurav Ghosal v Omar Mosaad (Sun 26 Jan 2020)
Match won by Saurav Ghosal. Result: 11-6,16-18,11-7,12-10.
Starting level for
Saurav Ghosal:
51,683, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Omar Mosaad:
44,172, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Saurav Ghosal to win as he is currently playing
17% better than Omar Mosaad.
Saurav Ghosal won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 22% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Saurav Ghosal played
24% better than Omar Mosaad in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Saurav Ghosal actually played at a level of
53,204 and Omar Mosaad at a level of
42,909. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.9% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal changes to +2.7% and Omar Mosaad changes to -2.5%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Saurav Ghosal becomes +1% and for Omar Mosaad becomes -0.9%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Pittsburgh Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Saurav Ghosal: 88%, Omar Mosaad: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Saurav Ghosal: 86%, Omar Mosaad: 89%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Saurav Ghosal:
51,960, level confidence: 86%.
Final level for Omar Mosaad:
43,967, level confidence: 89%.