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Eain Yow Ng v Rui Soares (Wed 22 Jan 2020)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 8-11,11-4,9-11,11-5,11-9.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 44,708, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Rui Soares: 26,383, level confidence: 50%.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 69% better than Rui Soares.

Eain Yow Ng won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 25% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 14% better than Rui Soares in this match.

As Eain Yow Ng has played below his allowed range at 33,524, his level reduction is 12% before damping. On the assumption that Eain Yow Ng would normally have been playing at level 41,323 (based on typical behaviour), Rui Soares played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 17%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 8.9% and 13% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to -5.9% and Rui Soares changes to +13%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes -1.7% and for Rui Soares becomes +3.2%.

Given Eain Yow Ng's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 74% has been applied to his level change.

Given Rui Soares's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 50% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng is -0.7% and for Rui Soares is +1.6%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 86%, Rui Soares: 71%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 70%, Rui Soares: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 44,323, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Rui Soares: 26,766, level confidence: 58%.