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Camille Serme v Nouran Gohar (Thu 16 Jan 2020)

Match won by Camille Serme. Result: 7-11,11-9,9-11,12-10,16-14.

Starting level for Camille Serme: 12,925, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 14,213, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Nouran Gohar to win as she is currently playing 10% better than Camille Serme.

Camille Serme won 60% of the games and 50% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 0% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Camille Serme played 8% better than Nouran Gohar in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Camille Serme actually played at a level of 14,053 and Nouran Gohar at a level of 13,072. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 8.7% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Camille Serme changes to +8.3% and Nouran Gohar changes to -7.2%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Camille Serme becomes +2.6% and for Nouran Gohar becomes -2.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Camille Serme: 86%, Nouran Gohar: 91%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Camille Serme: 79%, Nouran Gohar: 84%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Camille Serme: 13,207, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Nouran Gohar: 13,879, level confidence: 84%.