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Tarek Momen v Ali Farag (Thu 16 Jan 2020)

Match won by Tarek Momen. Result: 11-8,11-7,7-11,8-11,11-7.

Starting level for Tarek Momen: 65,552, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Ali Farag: 67,646, level confidence: 86%. Set manually.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 3% better than Tarek Momen.

Tarek Momen won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 9% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tarek Momen played 10% better than Ali Farag in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Tarek Momen actually played at a level of 69,769 and Ali Farag at a level of 63,558. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 6.4% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tarek Momen changes to +6.3% and Ali Farag changes to -4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tarek Momen becomes +1.6% and for Ali Farag becomes -1.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tarek Momen: 82%, Ali Farag: 93%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tarek Momen: 77%, Ali Farag: 87%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tarek Momen: 66,577, level confidence: 77%.
Final level for Ali Farag: 66,799, level confidence: 87%.