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Nouran Gohar v Alison Waters (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Nouran Gohar. Result: 11-6,11-8,11-7.

Starting level for Nouran Gohar: 14,286, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Starting level for Alison Waters: 9,643, level confidence: 63%.
Nouran Gohar to win as she is currently playing 48% better than Alison Waters.

Nouran Gohar won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nouran Gohar played 56% better than Alison Waters in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Nouran Gohar actually played at a level of 14,680 and Alison Waters at a level of 9,384. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 2.8% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 2.3% and 2.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar changes to +1.9% and Alison Waters changes to -2.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nouran Gohar becomes +0.9% and for Alison Waters becomes -1.1%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nouran Gohar: 86%, Alison Waters: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nouran Gohar: 84%, Alison Waters: 77%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nouran Gohar: 14,258, level confidence: 84%.
Final level for Alison Waters: 9,645, level confidence: 77%.