Camille Serme v Raneem El Welily (Wed 15 Jan 2020)
Match won by Camille Serme. Result: 13-15,11-4,7-11,11-5,11-6.
Starting level for
Camille Serme:
12,653, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Raneem El Welily:
14,945, level confidence: 64%.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing
18% better than Camille Serme.
Camille Serme won 60% of the games and 56% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 10%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 29% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Camille Serme played
15% better than Raneem El Welily in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Camille Serme actually played at a level of
14,735 and Raneem El Welily at a level of
12,833. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 16% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Camille Serme changes to +13% and Raneem El Welily changes to -15%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Camille Serme becomes +3.7% and for Raneem El Welily becomes -4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Camille Serme: 86%, Raneem El Welily: 80%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Camille Serme: 74%, Raneem El Welily: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Camille Serme:
13,050, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Raneem El Welily:
14,395, level confidence: 68%.