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Raneem El Welily v Annie Au (Tue 14 Jan 2020)

Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 11-9,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 14,856, level confidence: 45%.
Starting level for Annie Au: 10,047, level confidence: 62%.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 48% better than Annie Au.

Raneem El Welily won all of the games and 62% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 65% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played 65% better than Annie Au in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raneem El Welily actually played at a level of 15,693 and Annie Au at a level of 9,511. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 5.6% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 4.6% and 4.6% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to +4.6% and Annie Au changes to -3.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes +1.7% and for Annie Au becomes -1.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 67%, Annie Au: 79%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 64%, Annie Au: 75%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raneem El Welily: 14,824, level confidence: 64%.
Final level for Annie Au: 10,026, level confidence: 75%.