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Raneem El Welily v Coline Aumard (Mon 13 Jan 2020)

Match won by Raneem El Welily. Result: 11-6,11-1,11-2.

Starting level for Raneem El Welily: 14,225, level confidence: 51%.
Starting level for Coline Aumard: 9,475, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Raneem El Welily to win as she is currently playing 50% better than Coline Aumard.

Raneem El Welily won all of the games and 79% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 267% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Raneem El Welily played 267% better than Coline Aumard in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Raneem El Welily actually played at a level of 22,231 and Coline Aumard at a level of 6,063. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 56% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 44% and 44% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily changes to +44% and Coline Aumard changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Raneem El Welily becomes +9.6% and for Coline Aumard becomes -7.2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Raneem El Welily is limited to +4.4% and Coline Aumard is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Raneem El Welily: 71%, Coline Aumard: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Raneem El Welily: 45%, Coline Aumard: 54%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Raneem El Welily: 14,823, level confidence: 45%.
Final level for Coline Aumard: 9,011, level confidence: 54%.