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Youssef Soliman v Baptiste Masotti (Mon 13 Jan 2020)

Match won by Youssef Soliman. Result: 11-6,11-6,11-5.

Starting level for Youssef Soliman: 38,477, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 39,364, level confidence: 56%.
Baptiste Masotti to win as he is currently playing 2% better than Youssef Soliman.

Youssef Soliman won all of the games and 66% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 94% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Youssef Soliman played 94% better than Baptiste Masotti in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Youssef Soliman actually played at a level of 54,223 and Baptiste Masotti at a level of 27,933. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 41% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman changes to +33% and Baptiste Masotti changes to -40%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Youssef Soliman becomes +6.3% and for Baptiste Masotti becomes -7.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Youssef Soliman is limited to +5.3% and Baptiste Masotti is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Youssef Soliman: 82%, Baptiste Masotti: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Youssef Soliman: 58%, Baptiste Masotti: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.8% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Youssef Soliman: 40,510, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 38,126, level confidence: 53%.