Coline Aumard v Hollie Naughton (Sun 12 Jan 2020)
Match won by Coline Aumard. Result: 11-6,6-11,11-7,11-3.
Starting level for
Coline Aumard:
9,318, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for
Hollie Naughton:
8,444, level confidence: 57%.
Coline Aumard to win as she is currently playing
10% better than Hollie Naughton.
Coline Aumard won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if she was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Coline Aumard played
31% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Coline Aumard actually played at a level of
10,169 and Hollie Naughton at a level of
7,738. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Coline Aumard changes to +8.2% and Hollie Naughton changes to -8.7%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Coline Aumard becomes +2.8% and for Hollie Naughton becomes -3%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Coline Aumard: 78%, Hollie Naughton: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Coline Aumard: 71%, Hollie Naughton: 69%.
A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Coline Aumard:
9,483, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton:
8,251, level confidence: 69%.