SquashLevels
Find
Menu
Rankings
 
Help
 
 
 
cookies_acceptance
important
To give you the best experience, we use cookies to remember your settings and personalise your pages and social media. Please click Accept if you are happy for us to do this. To find out more about our use of cookies please see our cookie policy.
 

Coline Aumard v Hollie Naughton (Sun 12 Jan 2020)

Match won by Coline Aumard. Result: 11-6,6-11,11-7,11-3.

Starting level for Coline Aumard: 9,318, level confidence: 61%.
Starting level for Hollie Naughton: 8,444, level confidence: 57%.
Coline Aumard to win as she is currently playing 10% better than Hollie Naughton.

Coline Aumard won 75% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if she was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if she was better by around 44% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Coline Aumard played 31% better than Hollie Naughton in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Coline Aumard actually played at a level of 10,169 and Hollie Naughton at a level of 7,738. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.1% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Coline Aumard changes to +8.2% and Hollie Naughton changes to -8.7%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Coline Aumard becomes +2.8% and for Hollie Naughton becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Coline Aumard: 78%, Hollie Naughton: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Coline Aumard: 71%, Hollie Naughton: 69%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Coline Aumard: 9,483, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Hollie Naughton: 8,251, level confidence: 69%.