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Baptiste Masotti v Adrain Waller (Sun 12 Jan 2020)

Match won by Baptiste Masotti. Result: 11-13,11-7,11-8,11-4.

Starting level for Baptiste Masotti: 37,574, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Adrain Waller: 48,995, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Adrain Waller to win as he is currently playing 30% better than Baptiste Masotti.

Baptiste Masotti won 75% of the games and 58% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 38% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Baptiste Masotti played 29% better than Adrain Waller in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Baptiste Masotti actually played at a level of 48,756 and Adrain Waller at a level of 37,758. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 30% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 26% and 26% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti changes to +26% and Adrain Waller changes to -17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Baptiste Masotti becomes +5.1% and for Adrain Waller becomes -3.5%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Tournament Of Champions' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Baptiste Masotti: 73%, Adrain Waller: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Baptiste Masotti: 56%, Adrain Waller: 67%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Baptiste Masotti: 39,364, level confidence: 56%.
Final level for Adrain Waller: 47,381, level confidence: 67%.