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Tom J Walsh v Eain Yow Ng (Wed 15 Jan 2020)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 6-11,8-11,7-11.

Starting level for Tom J Walsh: 20,624, level confidence: 73%. Set manually.
Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 44,775, level confidence: 79%. Set manually.
Eain Yow Ng to win as he is currently playing 117% better than Tom J Walsh.

Eain Yow Ng won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 56% better than Tom J Walsh in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Eain Yow Ng was taking it easy by anything up to 15%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 31,402 and 44,775 without affecting his level.

In this case, Eain Yow Ng played at level 35,126 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Eain Yow Ng would normally have been playing at level 38,243 (based on typical behaviour), Tom J Walsh played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 8.9%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 5.9% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to 0% and Tom J Walsh changes to +5.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes 0% and for Tom J Walsh becomes +1.9%.

Given Tom J Walsh's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 40% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Surrey Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng is 0% and for Tom J Walsh is +1%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 89%, Tom J Walsh: 85%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 76%, Tom J Walsh: 72%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tom J Walsh: 20,803, level confidence: 72%.
Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 44,708, level confidence: 76%.