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Tsz Fung Yip v Cédric Kuchen (Mon 16 Dec 2019)

Match won by Tsz Fung Yip. Result: 11-8,11-6.

Starting level for Tsz Fung Yip: 36,079, level confidence: 62%.
Starting level for Cédric Kuchen: 20,066, level confidence: 75%. Set manually.
Tsz Fung Yip to win as he is currently playing 80% better than Cédric Kuchen.

Tsz Fung Yip won all of the games and 61% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 57% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Tsz Fung Yip played 56% better than Cédric Kuchen in this match.

In this case, Tsz Fung Yip played at level 32,081 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Tsz Fung Yip would normally have been playing at level 32,787 (based on typical behaviour), Cédric Kuchen played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.6% respectively.
As this is a best of 3 match rather than best of 5, these adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.2% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip changes to 0% and Cédric Kuchen changes to +1%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Tsz Fung Yip becomes 0% and for Cédric Kuchen becomes +0.4%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Tsz Fung Yip: 79%, Cédric Kuchen: 87%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Tsz Fung Yip: 73%, Cédric Kuchen: 81%.

A final adjustment of +0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Tsz Fung Yip: 36,024, level confidence: 73%.
Final level for Cédric Kuchen: 20,254, level confidence: 81%.