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Zac Alexander v Cédric Kuchen (Sun 08 Dec 2019)

Match won by Zac Alexander. Result: 11-7,11-3,11-6.

Starting level for Zac Alexander: 27,967, level confidence: 29%.
Starting level for Cédric Kuchen: 21,086, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Zac Alexander to win as he is currently playing 33% better than Cédric Kuchen.

Zac Alexander won all of the games and 67% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 106% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Zac Alexander played 106% better than Cédric Kuchen in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Zac Alexander actually played at a level of 34,875 and Cédric Kuchen at a level of 16,909. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 25% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 21% and 21% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Zac Alexander changes to +21% and Cédric Kuchen changes to -6.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Zac Alexander becomes +4.6% and for Cédric Kuchen becomes -2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Zac Alexander: 54%, Cédric Kuchen: 92%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Zac Alexander: 43%, Cédric Kuchen: 74%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Zac Alexander: 29,027, level confidence: 43%.
Final level for Cédric Kuchen: 20,735, level confidence: 74%.