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Gregory Gaultier v Iker Pajares Bernabeu (Thu 05 Dec 2019)

Retired pro result: Gregory Gaultier[314442]. Match type: Senior World Team Championship. Last pro match: 2018-10-11 19:00:00. Now: 2019-12-05 19:00:00. Days since: 420
Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 11-13,7-11,14-12,10-12.

Starting level for Gregory Gaultier: 58,715, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 41,704, level confidence: 83%. Set manually.
Gregory Gaultier to win as he is currently playing 41% better than Iker Pajares Bernabeu.

Iker Pajares Bernabeu won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played 21% better than Gregory Gaultier in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares Bernabeu actually played at a level of 54,537 and Gregory Gaultier at a level of 44,899. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 31% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 25% and 25% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to +18% and Gregory Gaultier changes to -25%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes +3.7% and for Gregory Gaultier becomes -8.3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Gregory Gaultier is limited to -4.7% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 91%, Gregory Gaultier: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 70%, Gregory Gaultier: 58%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Gregory Gaultier: 56,055, level confidence: 58%.
Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 43,177, level confidence: 70%.