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Ali Farag v Simon Rösner (Thu 05 Dec 2019)

Match won by Simon Rösner. Result: 6-11,8-11,11-9,11-5,8-11.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 71,843, level confidence: 53%.
Starting level for Simon Rösner: 57,333, level confidence: 69%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 25% better than Simon Rösner.

Simon Rösner won 60% of the games and 52% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 7% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Simon Rösner played 9% better than Ali Farag in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Simon Rösner actually played at a level of 67,068 and Ali Farag at a level of 61,415. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 15% and 15% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Simon Rösner changes to +11% and Ali Farag changes to -15%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Simon Rösner becomes +2.5% and for Ali Farag becomes -3%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Simon Rösner: 83%, Ali Farag: 73%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Simon Rösner: 71%, Ali Farag: 62%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 69,726, level confidence: 62%.
Final level for Simon Rösner: 58,688, level confidence: 71%.