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Mike McCue v Jean Pierre Brits (Wed 04 Dec 2019)

Match won by Jean Pierre Brits. Result: 4-11,5-11,3-11.

Starting level for Mike McCue: 23,966, level confidence: 67%.
Starting level for Jean Pierre Brits: 21,063, level confidence: 67%.
Mike McCue to win as he is currently playing 14% better than Jean Pierre Brits.

Jean Pierre Brits won all of the games and 73% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 175% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Jean Pierre Brits played 175% better than Mike McCue in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Jean Pierre Brits actually played at a level of 37,258 and Mike McCue at a level of 13,549. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 77% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Jean Pierre Brits changes to +70% and Mike McCue changes to -71%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Jean Pierre Brits becomes +12.9% and for Mike McCue becomes -13%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Jean Pierre Brits is limited to +6.4% and Mike McCue is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Jean Pierre Brits: 82%, Mike McCue: 82%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Jean Pierre Brits: 46%, Mike McCue: 46%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike McCue: 22,797, level confidence: 46%.
Final level for Jean Pierre Brits: 22,383, level confidence: 46%.