Campbell Grayson v Cameron Pilley (Tue 03 Dec 2019)
Match won by Campbell Grayson. Result: 11-9,11-6,7-11,11-9.
Starting level for
Campbell Grayson:
37,844, level confidence: 65%.
Starting level for
Cameron Pilley:
37,465, level confidence: 56%.
Campbell Grayson to win as he is currently playing
1% better than Cameron Pilley.
Campbell Grayson won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 14% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Campbell Grayson played
21% better than Cameron Pilley in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Campbell Grayson actually played at a level of
41,499 and Cameron Pilley at a level of
34,165. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 9.7% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson changes to +8.2% and Cameron Pilley changes to -9.6%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Campbell Grayson becomes +2.1% and for Cameron Pilley becomes -2.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Campbell Grayson: 81%, Cameron Pilley: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Campbell Grayson: 74%, Cameron Pilley: 68%.
A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Campbell Grayson:
38,527, level confidence: 74%.
Final level for Cameron Pilley:
36,638, level confidence: 68%.