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Reiko Peter v Chris Hanson (Sun 01 Dec 2019)

Match won by Reiko Peter. Result: 15-13,11-9,11-8.

Starting level for Reiko Peter: 24,591, level confidence: 85%. Set manually.
Starting level for Chris Hanson: 32,274, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Chris Hanson to win as he is currently playing 31% better than Reiko Peter.

Reiko Peter won all of the games and 55% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 23% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Reiko Peter played 34% better than Chris Hanson in this match. An upset!

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Reiko Peter actually played at a level of 32,585 and Chris Hanson at a level of 24,356. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 33% to match this result.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 28% and 28% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Reiko Peter changes to +23% and Chris Hanson changes to -28%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Reiko Peter becomes +5.1% and for Chris Hanson becomes -5.7%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Apply limits to the amount of change for a single match which are based on player level, level confidence and time since last match so that Chris Hanson is limited to -5% level change. In general a player's level won't go up by more than 10% or drop more than 5% if they've played in the last 7 days but those limits are relaxed if their previous match was further back.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Reiko Peter: 92%, Chris Hanson: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Reiko Peter: 70%, Chris Hanson: 63%.

A final adjustment of +0.9% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Reiko Peter: 25,738, level confidence: 70%.
Final level for Chris Hanson: 31,412, level confidence: 63%.