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Ali Farag v Dimitri Steinmann (Sun 01 Dec 2019)

Match won by Ali Farag. Result: 9-11,11-8,11-7,13-11.

Starting level for Ali Farag: 72,342, level confidence: 58%.
Starting level for Dimitri Steinmann: 28,958, level confidence: 57%.
Ali Farag to win as he is currently playing 150% better than Dimitri Steinmann.

Ali Farag won 75% of the games and 54% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 19% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ali Farag played 23% better than Dimitri Steinmann in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ali Farag was taking it easy by anything up to 19%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 47,905 and 72,342 without affecting his level.

As Ali Farag has played below his allowed range at 41,306, his level reduction is 16% before damping. On the assumption that Ali Farag would normally have been playing at level 58,869 (based on typical behaviour), Dimitri Steinmann played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 29%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 9.8% and 17% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Ali Farag changes to -9.6% and Dimitri Steinmann changes to +17%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Ali Farag becomes -2.2% and for Dimitri Steinmann becomes +3.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ali Farag: 76%, Dimitri Steinmann: 75%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ali Farag: 54%, Dimitri Steinmann: 53%.

A final adjustment of +0.5% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Ali Farag: 71,436, level confidence: 54%.
Final level for Dimitri Steinmann: 30,105, level confidence: 53%.