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Peter Creed v Sodiq Taiwo (Sat 30 Nov 2019)

Match won by Peter Creed. Result: 11-5,11-3,11-5.

Starting level for Peter Creed: 26,084, level confidence: 81%. Set manually.
Starting level for Sodiq Taiwo: 4,737, level confidence: 10%.
Peter Creed to win as he is currently playing 451% better than Sodiq Taiwo.

Peter Creed won all of the games and 72% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 154% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Peter Creed played 154% better than Sodiq Taiwo in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Peter Creed was taking it easy by anything up to 45%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 7,895 and 26,084 without affecting his level.

In this case, Peter Creed played at level 13,136 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Peter Creed would normally have been playing at level 14,351 (based on typical behaviour), Sodiq Taiwo played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 9.2%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 3.8% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Peter Creed changes to 0% and Sodiq Taiwo changes to +3.8%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Peter Creed becomes 0% and for Sodiq Taiwo becomes +2%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Peter Creed: 90%, Sodiq Taiwo: 32%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Peter Creed: 61%, Sodiq Taiwo: 21%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Peter Creed: 26,045, level confidence: 61%.
Final level for Sodiq Taiwo: 4,826, level confidence: 21%.