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Eain Yow Ng v Miguel Rodriguez (Fri 29 Nov 2019)

Match won by Eain Yow Ng. Result: 11-9,13-11,13-15,11-8.

Starting level for Eain Yow Ng: 40,555, level confidence: 88%. Set manually.
Starting level for Miguel Rodriguez: 48,918, level confidence: 65%.
Miguel Rodriguez to win as he is currently playing 21% better than Eain Yow Ng.

Eain Yow Ng won 75% of the games and 53% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 12% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Eain Yow Ng played 21% better than Miguel Rodriguez in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Eain Yow Ng actually played at a level of 48,911 and Miguel Rodriguez at a level of 40,561. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 21% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng changes to +14% and Miguel Rodriguez changes to -19%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Eain Yow Ng becomes +3.1% and for Miguel Rodriguez becomes -3.8%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Eain Yow Ng: 94%, Miguel Rodriguez: 81%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Eain Yow Ng: 78%, Miguel Rodriguez: 67%.

A final adjustment of +0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Eain Yow Ng: 41,772, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Miguel Rodriguez: 47,258, level confidence: 67%.