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Iker Pajares Bernabeu v Gonzalo Miranda (Wed 27 Nov 2019)

Match won by Iker Pajares Bernabeu. Result: 11-3,11-5,11-7.

Starting level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 41,841, level confidence: 78%. Set manually.
Starting level for Gonzalo Miranda: 13,596, level confidence: 61%.
Iker Pajares Bernabeu to win as he is currently playing 208% better than Gonzalo Miranda.

Iker Pajares Bernabeu won all of the games and 69% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 120% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares Bernabeu played 120% better than Gonzalo Miranda in this match.

Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Iker Pajares Bernabeu was taking it easy by anything up to 25%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 23,375 and 41,841 without affecting his level.

In this case, Iker Pajares Bernabeu played at level 30,585 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. On the assumption that Iker Pajares Bernabeu would normally have been playing at level 31,273 (based on typical behaviour), Gonzalo Miranda played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 2.3%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 0% and 1.3% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu changes to 0% and Gonzalo Miranda changes to +1.3%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares Bernabeu becomes 0% and for Gonzalo Miranda becomes +0.6%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 88%, Gonzalo Miranda: 78%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 75%, Gonzalo Miranda: 66%.

A final adjustment of -0.1% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Iker Pajares Bernabeu: 41,778, level confidence: 75%.
Final level for Gonzalo Miranda: 13,657, level confidence: 66%.