Iker Pajares v Raphael Kandra (Wed 27 Nov 2019)
Match won by Iker Pajares. Result: 11-8,9-11,11-8,11-7.
Starting level for
Iker Pajares:
40,675, level confidence: 84%. Set manually.
Starting level for
Raphael Kandra:
44,668, level confidence: 80%. Set manually.
Raphael Kandra to win as he is currently playing
10% better than Iker Pajares.
Iker Pajares won 75% of the games and 55% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 25%.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 24% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Iker Pajares played
25% better than Raphael Kandra in this match.
Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Iker Pajares actually played at a level of
47,563 and Raphael Kandra at a level of
38,199. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 17% to match this result.
Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Iker Pajares changes to +15% and Raphael Kandra changes to -16%.
After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Iker Pajares becomes +3.4% and for Raphael Kandra becomes -3.4%.
Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'Senior World Team Championship' so the adjustment is unchanged.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Iker Pajares: 92%, Raphael Kandra: 89%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Iker Pajares: 78%, Raphael Kandra: 76%.
A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Iker Pajares:
41,943, level confidence: 78%.
Final level for Raphael Kandra:
43,301, level confidence: 76%.