Ryan Cuskelly v Ammar Altamimi (Tue 26 Nov 2019)
Match won by Ryan Cuskelly. Result: 11-7,11-7,11-4.
Starting level for
Ryan Cuskelly:
46,090, level confidence: 69%.
Starting level for
Ammar Altamimi:
22,839, level confidence: 71%. Set manually.
Ryan Cuskelly to win as he is currently playing
102% better than Ammar Altamimi.
Ryan Cuskelly won all of the games and 65% of the points.
This
games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This
points result would be expected if he was better by around 83% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Ryan Cuskelly played
83% better than Ammar Altamimi in this match.
Due to the difference between the players' levels, allow for the likelihood that Ryan Cuskelly was taking it easy by anything up to 13%. This gives him an allowed level range for this match between 35,180 and 46,090 without affecting his level.
In this case, Ryan Cuskelly played at level 41,872 and remained within his allowed range so his level will not be adjusted. Consequently, Ammar Altamimi is considered to have not played better than expected and his level will also not be adjusted.
Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Ryan Cuskelly: 83%, Ammar Altamimi: 84%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Ryan Cuskelly: 79%, Ammar Altamimi: 80%.
A final adjustment of +0.4% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.
Final level for Ryan Cuskelly:
46,161, level confidence: 79%.
Final level for Ammar Altamimi:
23,007, level confidence: 80%.