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Nick Matthew v George Parker (Wed 11 Dec 2019)

Match won by Nick Matthew. Result: 7-11,11-8,11-5,2-11,11-8.

Starting level for Nick Matthew: 48,314, level confidence: 54%.
Starting level for George Parker: 38,397, level confidence: 74%. Set manually.
Nick Matthew to win as he is currently playing 26% better than George Parker.

Nick Matthew won 60% of the games and 49% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was worse by around 2% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Nick Matthew played 7% better than George Parker in this match.

As Nick Matthew has played below his allowed range at 43,672, his level reduction is 6.4% before damping. On the assumption that Nick Matthew would normally have been playing at level 47,480 (based on typical behaviour), George Parker played better than expected and therefore gains a pre-damping level increase of 7.5%.

Allowing for the difference in level between the players, the adjustments have been reduced to 5.7% and 6.7% respectively.

Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Nick Matthew changes to -5.7% and George Parker changes to +4.9%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Nick Matthew becomes -1.6% and for George Parker becomes +1.5%.

Given Nick Matthew's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 78% has been applied to his level change.

Given George Parker's level and the type of match played, an additional damping of 66% has been applied to his level change.

Apply match/event weighting of 75% for 'Yorkshire Winter League 2019/20' so the adjustment for Nick Matthew is -0.7% and for George Parker is +0.7%.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Nick Matthew: 73%, George Parker: 86%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Nick Matthew: 68%, George Parker: 79%.

A final adjustment of -0.2% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Nick Matthew: 47,700, level confidence: 68%.
Final level for George Parker: 38,755, level confidence: 79%.