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Mazen Gamal v Christopher Gordon (Fri 06 Dec 2019)

Match won by Mazen Gamal. Result: 10-12,11-6,8-11,11-3,11-3.

Starting level for Mazen Gamal: 26,367, level confidence: 63%.
Starting level for Christopher Gordon: 27,707, level confidence: 57%.
Christopher Gordon to win as he is currently playing 5% better than Mazen Gamal.

Mazen Gamal won 60% of the games and 59% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 10%.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 46% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mazen Gamal played 19% better than Christopher Gordon in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mazen Gamal actually played at a level of 29,476 and Christopher Gordon at a level of 24,785. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 12% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mazen Gamal changes to +10.5% and Christopher Gordon changes to -11%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mazen Gamal becomes +2.7% and for Christopher Gordon becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Florida Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mazen Gamal: 79%, Christopher Gordon: 76%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mazen Gamal: 71%, Christopher Gordon: 68%.

A final adjustment of +0% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mazen Gamal: 27,021, level confidence: 71%.
Final level for Christopher Gordon: 26,987, level confidence: 68%.