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Mike McCue v Evan Williams (Thu 05 Dec 2019)

Match won by Mike McCue. Result: 13-11,11-5,11-4.

Starting level for Mike McCue: 22,797, level confidence: 46%.
Starting level for Evan Williams: 20,158, level confidence: 89%. Set manually.
Mike McCue to win as he is currently playing 13% better than Evan Williams.

Mike McCue won all of the games and 64% of the points.
This games result would be expected if he was better by around 55% or more.
This points result would be expected if he was better by around 75% (PAR scoring).
These are weighted and combined to calculate that Mike McCue played 75% better than Evan Williams in this match.

Assuming that any level changes are shared between both players, for this result it looks like Mike McCue actually played at a level of 28,358 and Evan Williams at a level of 16,205. Without any damping, both players would need to be adjusted by 24% to match this result.


Factoring in the relative levels of confidence which allows players with low confidence in their levels to change more quickly, the adjustment for Mike McCue changes to +23% and Evan Williams changes to -10.6%.

After applying standard match damping, the adjustment for Mike McCue becomes +5.1% and for Evan Williams becomes -2.9%.

Apply match/event weighting of 100% for 'PSA Securian Open' so the adjustment is unchanged.

Increase level confidence due to one more match played. Mike McCue: 68%, Evan Williams: 94%. Reduce level confidence based on how unexpected the result is. Mike McCue: 55%, Evan Williams: 76%.

A final adjustment of -0.3% has been made to both players as part of the automatic calibration that is performed after each match. All players in this pool will have been adjusted equally in order to remain equivalent to other player pools.

Final level for Mike McCue: 23,768, level confidence: 55%.
Final level for Evan Williams: 19,644, level confidence: 76%.